Should You Sell Your Roblox Stock Now?

September 29th, 2026 · by Trefis TeamRBLXYTD-48.3%SPYYTD+12.9%XLCYTD-5.0%
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Roblox (RBLX) holders have one worry: the stock has lost most of its value over the past year and may fall further. A $10,000 holding bought a year ago is worth about $3,170 today. The shares fell 9.9% on September 28, the day Roblox was downgraded to underperform by Jefferies. A fall this deep is worth holding through only if the business is still healthy. So is Roblox’s business breaking, or are its players just spending less than the company expected?

Roblox Players Keep Coming But Spend Less Than Forecast

Roblox’s business is not breaking, because players keep arriving. Daily active users reached 123 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 10% from a year earlier. Hours spent on the platform rose 5% to 29 billion.

The weak spot is how much players spend for each hour they play. Spending per hour came in below the company’s forecast. Bookings, the money players spend on Roblox in a quarter, grew just 8% to $1.6 billion. Management said that was at the low end of its own forecast.

Management blamed a move away from last year’s viral hits, which earned a lot per hour. Those games drew younger players in particular. Spending by players under 13 fell particularly short of the company’s forecast. Players moved to newer and older games that earn less per hour. Roblox also changed its recommendation algorithm to favor games that keep players returning, at the cost of near-term spending.

The bigger hit to bookings is still ahead. Management expects third-quarter bookings of $1.58 billion to $1.65 billion. That would be 14% to 18% below a year earlier, a comparison management called tough. Roblox also declined to update its full-year forecast. Management has given no date for players spending more again.

Can Roblox Get Players Spending More Again?

Possibly, but Roblox has not said when. The company is counting on older players, and that group is growing fast. In the US, daily users aged 18 to 34 grew about 40% from a year earlier. Management said players over 18 account for 80% of the global gaming market.

On the July 30 call, management would not give a timeline for the recommendation changes to pay off. Earnings are under pressure in the meantime. Management said about half of the expected hit to earnings comes from spending on AI tools such as Build and Moments. The other half comes from fixed costs spread over lower bookings.

Investors still pay extra for Roblox’s growth. Roblox stock costs 5.3 times the company’s sales over the past twelve months, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500. Roblox lost money over that period, so a price-to-earnings ratio means nothing here.

That higher price comes from fast growth. Revenue rose 33% a year on average over three years, against 5.8% for the S&P 500. If bookings fall as management forecasts, investors have less reason to pay extra. Roblox stock could then fall hard, as it has before.

How Far Has Roblox Stock Fallen In Past Sell-Offs?

In the two market sell-offs that hit it hardest, Roblox fell far further than the S&P 500. In the 2022 inflation shock, Roblox fell 77% from its peak to its low, against 24% for the S&P 500. A $10,000 position at the 2022 peak was worth about $2,300 at the low.

The 2023 bond-yield shock was similar, with Roblox down 36% against 9.5% for the S&P 500. The 2023 banking crisis went the other way, with Roblox down just 0.6% while the S&P 500 fell 6.7%.

Each of these falls runs from the stock’s high to its low inside the shock window. You should size a Roblox position with those past falls in mind.

Roblox’s third quarter ends this week. The report that follows will show whether spending per hour has steadied. A good result would be bookings near the top of management’s third-quarter forecast while daily users keep growing. That would be a sign the drag from players leaving last year’s viral hits is ending. If bookings land below that forecast, Roblox becomes a riskier bet that relies on older players spending more later.

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