Roblox Just Gained 17% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?

• RBLX
  +2.80%

Roblox Just Gained 17% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More? ©Dean Drobot

Key Takeaways

• Roblox stock is up 17% in the past month as a viral hit and a run of higher price targets outweighed a Jefferies downgrade.

• The stock now trades above analysts’ average price target, so taking some profits before the Oct. 29 report looks like the better move.

• Third-quarter bookings are guided to fall 14% to 18%, and analysts expect bookings to barely grow in 2026.

• Bookings against the $1.65 billion top of guidance and the fourth-quarter outlook will help assess Roblox’s monetization, while management commentary could clarify Steal an Egg’s contribution.

Roblox (RBLX:NYSE) stock is up 17% in the past month (through Monday’s close), while the Nasdaq-100 fell 4%. It got there even though management guided third-quarter bookings down as much as 18%. The report is due after the close on Oct. 29.

A downgrade, then a viral hit

On Sept. 28, Jefferies cut Roblox to Underperform with a $38 target, and the stock fell 10% that day. The bookings gap behind that call is in the U.S. and Canada, where Jefferies sees a slower, pricier recovery. It modeled 5% bookings growth for 2027, against 12% for the Street at the time.

Then the news turned. Wells Fargo put Roblox on its fourth-quarter Tactical Ideas List on Oct. 1, and the stock shrugged off Playground, the AI game builder Alphabet’s (GOOGL:NASDAQ) Google and Unity Software (U:NYSE) unveiled on Oct. 7.

Plus: Steal an Egg, launched July 25, topped Roblox’s most-visited list in the third quarter, with 6 billion visits and a peak of 14.2 million players at once, per Aream & Co.’s industry report.

Higher targets, same Neutral ratings

On Oct. 14, JPMorgan raised its target to $53 from $40, UBS to $53 from $45 and DA Davidson to $50 from $40. Wedbush went to $55 from $48 on Oct. 23. All four kept Neutral ratings.

Roth went further. On Monday it kept its Buy rating and $60 target, saying trends are improving on age verification and Steal an Egg.

Even so, Roblox stock now trades above three of those four new targets, and about 9% above the $50 average…

(A year ago, that average was nearly $150.)

TIKR Tracks 35 Analysts on Roblox. How Many Say “Buy”?

See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Roblox, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Roblox’s Analyst Ratings

Engagement is up, and spending is the test

In the second quarter, daily active users rose 10% to 123 million, while bookings grew just 8% to $1.56 billion, so the average user already spent a little less. Management guided third-quarter bookings to $1.58 billion to $1.65 billion, down 14% to 18%.