Patrick Mahomes is 31 and entering his tenth NFL season and his ninth as a starter. Thus far, Mahomes has appeared in five Super Bowls and won three. He has also won three Super Bowl MVPs and two regular-season MVPs.
Mahomes is coming off a major injury he suffered against the Chargers last December, when he tore his ACL and LCL, which kept the Kansas City Chiefs out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Brady also tore his ACL and MCL at 31, in Week 1 of 2008, with three rings, two Super Bowl MVPs, and an MVP award already to his name. It’s only natural to compare the two.
Tom Brady vs Patrick Mahomes Card Markets
Tom Brady’s cards at 31 were traded in a different environment compared to Patrick Mahomes’ cards. There wasn’t a real breaking culture; parallels weren’t overloaded; and grading volume was a fraction of what it is today. Brady’s pricing then reflected what he had already won. Consider his 2000 Contenders Rookie Ticket auto; today, it is one of the most liquid cards in the market and can sell for over $1 million in a high-grade copy. In 2008, when Brady was 31, the highest price was $4,778. It was a completely different market.
Patrick Mahomes’ card market is the complete opposite. All of his rookie cards were printed and graded during the biggest boom the hobby has ever seen. His cards carry a layer of speculation that Brady’s cards never had at age 31.
We saw Tom Brady’s biggest card values rise after the age of 31. He added four more Super Bowls, and as soon as he passed Joe Montana for Super Bowl wins, the greatest-of-all-time discussion was over quickly. At that point, collectors paid for the rings as they arrived. The better question now is whether Mahomes’ market is doing the opposite by paying up front for future Super Bowl titles.
Patrick Mahomes Card Ladder Index
Since his injury, Mahomes’ index on Card Ladder is up 11.36%. That sounds strong until you see that the rest of the football index is up 38.73%. Collectors aren’t abandoning him, but they’re also not chasing him the way they’re chasing the rest of the market.
Mahomes Most Popular Rookie Card
In the last week, Card Ladder reports that 764 Patrick Mahomes cardswere sold. Mahomes’ most popular rookie card in the last week was his 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #327, with an average sale price of $393.
So is Mahomes’ market paying up front for future Super Bowls? The data says yes, with a discount. The injury shows buyers aren’t ignoring the risk: since December, Mahomes’ index is up 11.36% while the rest of the football index is up 38.73%. If he keeps playing the way he did on Sunday night, the market should continue to buy back in.
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Paulo runs The 90: A Soccer Cards Podcast and collector intelligence brand built on data. He also founded the site www.ultimate90.com. His background is in marketing, event, trade show, and conference production. Some of his favorite athletes to collect include Tony Gwynn, Ted Williams, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Larry Bird.
