Our Final Emmys Forecast: Which Shows And Stars Will Nab Major Nominations This Week?
By Dave NemetzJuly 7, 2026 9:00 am EST
It’s that time of year again: time for Emmy voters to honor the best TV shows and performances of the past year… and time for us to guess which way they’ll be leaning
The 2026 Emmy nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday morning, and we’re sure to see a healthy mix of past winners and new upstarts vying to grab one of those coveted slots. We here at TVLine have a pretty good idea of whose names we’ll hear when the nominations are announced, but of course, there are always surprises. So we’re taking one last look at the shows and actors most likely to make it onto this year’s Emmy ballot
We’re breaking this down into the three major Emmy fields — comedy, drama, and limited series — and pinpointing the sure things, the dark horses, and the former winners who may have fallen out of favor this time around. So read on to get our take on who’ll be dominating the Emmy nominations this year, and be sure to hit the comments below to share your own predictions (and hopes)
Comedy
HBO Max
We start at the top, with HBO Max’s showbiz satire “Hacks,” which is sure to nab another nomination for best comedy series for its final season after four previous nods, including a win in 2024. (Last year’s winner, “The Studio,” hasn’t returned for Season 2 yet, so it’s out of the running.) Reigning champs Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder are certain to defend their titles in the lead actress and supporting actress categories, too. In fact, in a feat that’s positively Julia Louis-Dreyfus-ian, Smart has won the Emmy in all four seasons she’s played “Hacks” stand-up comic Deborah Vance so far.
We also see Apple TV’s “Shrinking” earning its second straight nod for best comedy series, with stars Jason Segel and Harrison Ford tipped as the frontrunners for best lead actor and supporting actor, along with fellow returning nominees “Abbott Elementary” and “Only Murders in the Building.” Former winner “The Bear” is on shaky ground, though. We saw Season 4 — which is the season eligible this year, for the record — as a strong comeback season, but will voters punish it for a perceived downturn in quality (and for being the least funny “comedy” on TV)? Stars Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri are still likely to be in the mix in their respective acting categories, but the show’s days of dominating the Emmys may be in the past.
Then we have the new arrivals, with Apple TV’s “Widow’s Bay” and “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” looking to make noise in their freshman seasons. (Personally, we’d love to see the fiendishly clever “Widow’s Bay” break through with much-deserved nods for stars Matthew Rhys and Kate O’Flynn.) Plus, an old friend returned this year in the form of HBO’s “The Comeback,” with Lisa Kudrow a cinch to claim another best actress nod as iconic actress Valerie Cherish — and maybe even challenge Smart for the win. (Hey, Valerie Cherish won an Emmy. Why can’t Kudrow?) Meanwhile, Netflix’s rom-com “Nobody Wants This” might have to settle for watching the ceremony at home following a lackluster sophomore run, along with fellow previous nominees “Wednesday” and “Jury Duty.”
Could the HBO oddball “The Chair Company” break through with a surprise nod or two? Will the return of “Malcolm in the Middle” inspire Emmy voters to honor Hulu’s revival? How about a surprise nod for Ethan Hawke’s acclaimed turn in FX’s shaggy-dog mystery “The Lowdown“? Might Steve Carell lead a “Rooster” rally for his HBO college comedy? We’d support that last one, if only as an act of contrition for the horrible injustice of Carell never winning an Emmy for “The Office.”
Drama
Apple TV
The way we see the drama categories this year, it’s “The Pitt” and everyone else. HBO Max’s intense medical drama earned even more fans in Season 2, and we expect it to pull in an impressive haul of nominations this year, including no-brainers for drama series and lead actor Noah Wyle. The only question is: How many supporting nods will it claim for its cast? Amazingly, it could claim a half-dozen or more spots across the two supporting acting categories. (It helps that “Severance” and “The White Lotus,” which gobbled up a bunch of acting nominations last year, aren’t eligible this year since they haven’t returned yet.)
There are other TV dramas in the running besides “The Pitt,” though, we should remind you. Apple TV’s sci-fi freshman “Pluribus” boasts an Emmy-friendly pedigree, hailing from “Breaking Bad” creator Vince Gilligan, and star Rhea Seehorn is the one to beat for lead actress as post-apocalyptic survivor Carol. She’ll have strong competition, though, from Keri Russell, whose Netflix political thriller “The Diplomat” is sure to grab a handful of major nominations. Former nominees “Slow Horses” and “Paradise” are likely to be in the best drama series mix again as well, along with HBO’s searing crime drama “Task,” which is eyeing acting nods for stars Mark Ruffalo and Tom Pelphrey.
A pair of spin-offs that spring from Emmy favorites could break through as well for their freshman runs: HBO’s “Game of Thrones” offshoot “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” and Hulu’s follow-up to “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “The Testaments.” And then there’s “Euphoria.” The boundary-pushing HBO drama racked up more than two dozen Emmy nominations for its first two seasons, including a pair of acting wins for Zendaya as drug-addicted teen Rue. But the third and final season was received so poorly — like, “The Idol”-level bad — that it may have to just be content with a courtesy nod for Zendaya. Netflix’s “Stranger Things” is also unlikely to earn any major nominations for its farewell run, despite four previous nods for best drama series.
Among the longshots, we’re pulling hard — begging, really — for HBO’s “Industry” to finally get some recognition from Emmy voters after a spectacular fourth season. (C’mon, it has Kit Harington! You like him!) “The Gilded Age” may sneak into a few of the major categories, most likely with Carrie Coon for best lead actress. Could “Your Friends & Neighbors” land a nod for star Jon Hamm? Will Michelle Pfeiffer get recognized for her turn as a grieving wife on “The Madison“? We know Taylor Sheridan doesn’t care about the Emmys… but we do.
Limited Series
Netflix
This category took a hit when HBO renewed “Task” for a second season, moving it to the drama categories and removing a strong contender from the mix. As it stands, the field here is wide open, with a half-dozen entries all having a real shot at taking home the Emmy for best limited series. We’ll start with a returning favorite of sorts: Netflix’s grudge anthology “BEEF,” which took home eight Emmys for Season 1 and returned for Season 2 this spring with a new season led by movie stars Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan. But the sophomore season wasn’t as well-received as the first — although we loved it — and so might not be the runaway winner Season 1 was.
Also offering a comforting familiarity to voters are the Netflix thriller “The Beast in Me,” starring Emmy winners Claire Danes and Matthew Rhys, and Peacock’s “All Her Fault,” led by “Succession” alum (and another former winner) Sarah Snook. Plus, “Baby Reindeer” star Richard Gadd returned with another twisted tale in HBO’s “Half Man,” and Ryan Murphy — who has owned these categories in the past with “American Horror Story” and “American Crime Story” — served up a glossy “Love Story” on FX, with stars Paul Anthony Kelly and Sarah Pidgeon (who played JFK Jr. and Carolyn Bessette) likely to score acting nods.
A little more off the beaten path lies HBO’s quirky tragicomedy “DTF St. Louis,” which offers some familiar faces in Jason Bateman, David Harbour, and Linda Cardellini, but might be too dark and weird to make a serious run at the Emmys. Could Bateman’s Netflix crime drama with Jude Law, “Black Rabbit,” sneak in instead? Will Murphy’s “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” land a nod for star Charlie Hunnam? Could Netflix’s richly observed political docudrama “Death By Lightning” be a dark horse in this race? Thankfully, we don’t have to wait long to find out.
Who are you rooting for to earn an Emmy nomination this week? Let us know in a comment below!
