Predicting the Next Big Non

You may or may not have noticed that the latest craze sweeping the world of collectors is… pop culture and non-sport cards. Most notably the 1966 Batman rookie, various 1975 Marvel Super Heroes, and the 1990 Bart Simpson Bartman. 

The market is not behaving normally. The Athletic’s Michael Salfino, as smart a mind as any when it comes to card value, is just as confused as the rest of us:

All too often, I have made the mistake of sitting idly by in my lounge chair, waving a hand, and saying “ah this is just a fad!” I’m not sure this is a fad. I don’t know how to properly gauge how this will sustain itself, but it’s not just pop culture cards – Ken Griffey Jr. cards are also surging in value, as are random Jeters.

So instead of poo-pooing this rapid pop culture card ascent, I want to be ahead of everything. And, as loyal Mail Day readers may know, your old pal J.R. Fickle technically has been ahead here, as a non-sport enthusiast – but CEO Evan Parker has repeatedly told us to can the pop culture stuff “lest ye want a thousand paper cuts courtesy of this ONIT Maisyn Rader card! Now go write about something shiny and modern!”

At least that’s how I remember it. 

So now, like a surfer, I will lay myself – belly down – on my surfboard, wade into the waters of non-sport cards, and wait for a wave to pick me up and give me a ride. And hope I don’t get eaten by a shark in the process. Here are my three POP CULTURE PREDICTIONS as we wait for the next burst of demand. 

1. The Steve Urkel rookie will get to $100 raw – Impel LAFFS card #28 (about $60 as a PSA 9)

We need something iconic. Universally beloved. No controversy attached. And nostalgic. We wrote about a giant Steve Urkel collection last January; the seller was asking $5000 for it… and still is!

To be clear, there is a Jaleel White rookie card, number 27, in the Impel LAFFS set:

And there is a Steve Urkel card, number 28:

The Urkel is worth more, despite it being a higher number and not “first.”

According to the pop report, there are 22 PSA 9s in existence and 15 PSA 10s. There are 930 PSA 9 Bartmans. So if you want to talk scarcity, Urkel gets the win. Nostalgia, I will give it a tie. And while the Simpsons obviously has the longevity, Family Matters – from 1991-92 to 1994-95, was the ratings winner:

(Research courtesy of Perplexity’s Comet browser, so blame them if these are wrong)

NOTE: You can find whole boxes of this set for about $45, which could also get you into the entire TGIF lineup – and, thus, their rookie cards. 

2. The Jennifer Lopez 1992 In Living Color “Fly Girls” rookie will slowly rise to $300+ as a PSA 9 ($30-50)

If you want to make an argument that the LAFFS set isn’t from a big manufacturer, fine. I present to you Topps’ 1992 Jennifer Lopez rookie card – which also doubles as the Carrie Ann Inaba rookie card, for my fellow “So You Think You Can Dance” fans. 

Legacy? Giant check mark. Star power? YES. Rookie card? Yes. Nostalgia? Maybe. I don’t know what could make this card jump in value other than some influencers convincing everyone it’s a must-have.

This card has 5 PSA 10s and 21 PSA 9s. HOWEVER, there are two other Fly Girls cards in this set, which could cloud the conversation on which one is the actual rookie. This one has the name “Jennifer,” though (and “Carrie”!), which makes it a more personal rookie that just “The Fly Girls.” TBD if that logic holds, but it’s what I’m going with!

3. My big swing: The “Who’s Nailin Paylin?” sealed DVD will become a scarce grail for pop culture collectors as we approach the 20th anniversary of Sarah Palin’s pop culture ascent ($50+)

I’m going to tread very carefully around this one, BUT let’s give it a try!

The recent and unexpected push again for physical media like DVDs and CDs/vinyl doesn’t necessarily mean the demand for sealed-only stuff is all there is; if my favorite movie is pulled from streaming, I’ll buy it in whatever format I can. GI Joe the Movie, for instance! Or even bootlegs of Disney’s Halloween Treat. I want to watch those, not nail them to a wall in a shadow box. 

HOWEVER, there’s some stuff that — without the foresight of “disappearing streaming media”  20 years ago — were widely opened and watched, so new copies don’t exist in giant numbers. 

This brings me around to one of the most famous pornograpy/pop culture crossover moments of the 2000s – “Who’s Nailin Paylin?” It launched Lisa Ann into another stratosphere and became a pop culture hit. Need proof? Look where the movie was being advertised in The Journal News in 2008:

Lisa Ann made news for dating a Kardashian!

Now, open an incognito tab (<– very important first step!) and search for an unopened copy of the movie. It’s nearly impossible to find in the wild, and the Hustler official site has one… for $50. THIS is scarcity. And now what I’d like you to do is imagine getting this DVD signed by Lisa Ann. Then getting it graded or at least encapsulated. Then hang it in the front hall. Of your mom’s house. This does two things:

1. The Lisa Ann autograph shows that you somehow have access to someone with 4M Instagram followers. Granted, you likely just mailed this to her or saw her at a book signing. But you never have to tell. 

But all jokes aside, this is a giant pop culture moment and it is more scarce than people think. “As scarce as the Balloon Boy card?” you may ask. No. But since that never caught on – despite the former owner of the actual balloon telling Topps that  everything is completely gone now EXCEPT for the pieces of the balloon inside the cards – we’re looking at the sealed DVD market. 

And here we are. 

Those are my top 3 buys right now. I am certain something random will pop instead, but.. I’m just following these random, illogical breadcrumbs. 

Have a lovely week, everyone!! And gird yourselves for a big piece coming soon on my Whatnot deep dive. Things will get weird!