Sophie Bennett09/11/2026
4 min read
Your case is open, the dust filter’s in the sink, and those two sticks of RAM you bought years ago suddenly look like the most valuable thing in the box. They probably are. Memory prices still haven’t topped out: TrendForce projects conventional DRAM contract prices will grow 10 to 15% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, with NAND Flash contract prices expected to rise 15 to 20%.
That’s the market-research firm’s official outlook from September 30. A later TrendForce news roundup on October 20, citing Commercial Times, put the figure a little higher, saying fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices are expected to rise about 20% quarter-on-quarter.
TrendForce’s Q4 2026 DRAM forecast: rising slower, still rising
There’s a sliver of good news in there. According to that October roundup, the projected rise is a slowdown from approximately 80% in the second quarter and 40% in the third. Smaller jumps, sure. Nobody’s forecasting a fall, though.
TrendForce’s own release explains why. DRAM suppliers continue to prioritize advanced-process capacity for high-performance server products in 4Q26, keeping the overall market undersupplied. The firm also says PC OEMs continue to procure aggressively amid expectations that DRAM supply will remain tight in 2027, providing continued support for prices. If the companies that build prebuilts are stockpiling for next year, you shouldn’t expect bargains by Christmas.
PC builders are split on whether to buy now before the next increase or just sit it out with what they’ve got:
32GB of DDR5-6000 now starts at US$454
The retail numbers are rough. Engadget compared prices from 2020 with today’s on November 2. Back then, $94.99 could buy you a 32GB DDR4-3200 RAM kit. In October 2026, the cheapest comparable kit listed in a price tracker cost $198. It’s even more expensive to build a newer DDR5 system, with 32GB of DDR5-6000 memory starting at $454.
Tom’s Hardware followed a single kit over the year. At Prime Day 2025 it recommended a Crucial Pro 32GB DDR5 6000 memory kit, reduced from $119 to just $90. One year later, that very same kit now costs $459. That’s DDR5-6000, the speed most mid-range AMD gaming builds are tuned for, now costing about five times as much.
Second-hand isn’t a real escape either. Engadget found a 32GB Corsair DDR4-3200 kit sold on eBay for $129.99 plus $9 shipping ($138.99 total) in September 2026. That’s cheaper than new. It’s still well above what the same memory cost in 2020.
Read also:Ex-Blizzard Boss Mike Ybarra Says a $1,800 Next-Gen Xbox Would Sell “Zero”
Australia’s cheapest 32GB DDR5 stick costs A$539
Local shelves look about the same. Australian price tracker PriceDrift listed the cheapest DDR5 RAM in Australia this week: 16GB from $289.00, 32GB from $539.00 (2026-11-02). That A$539 floor is a single Crucial 32GB stick at 4800MHz from Umart, so it’s not a dual-channel DDR5-6000 kit.
A second tracker, PGrid, has the same starting point and shows how far the middle of the market has moved. It counts 178 32GB DDR5 desktop kits in stock in Australia. Prices start at $539 for the Crucial DDR5 DIMM 32GB (1x32GB), and the median is $961.58. Both trackers list Australian dollars. We didn’t find a comparable tracker for New Zealand pricing.
RAM lifespan: 3 to 15 years, and plenty of sticks never fail
Here’s the bit that should calm you down. RAM is one of the hardest parts in your rig to kill. PCWorld puts typical module life at 3-15 years depending on quality and usage conditions. Digital Trends calls it one of the longest-lasting components in a PC, with an average lifespan of eight to 10 years. This is just an approximate range, as many RAM modules will never fail.
Most gamers retire their memory long before it dies. Digital Trends says you will replace the memory in your PC long before it manages to fail, and you’ll do it as part of a platform upgrade. If a stick does start going, PCWorld lists the usual signs as system crashes, blue screens, data corruption, and memory error messages, with diagnostic tools like Memtest86 confirming problems.
The same outlet’s advice on keeping it alive is boring but sensible: a stable power supply, decent airflow, and keep to the manufacturer’s specifications to ensure stability and longevity of your RAM. Pushing voltages for a few extra frames was always a gamble. With replacements this expensive, it’s a much worse one.
Why holding onto DDR4 makes sense for now
Our view: if your current kit is stable and your games aren’t hitting a memory wall, this is the worst time in years to chase a faster platform. A 32GB DDR4 setup still runs the vast majority of the library on Steam. Paying hundreds extra for DDR5 right now buys you a small performance bump at a terrible price.
If you ask us, the smarter play if you’re upgrading is to hang on to the old sticks rather than dumping them on Marketplace. They’re working hardware with plenty of life left, and spares are now hard to replace. Keep them in the anti-static bag.
Don’t expect relief soon. TrendForce’s outlook still has prices continuing to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and its next quarterly contract forecast will cover the first quarter of 2027, the year PC makers are already buying ahead for.
australiaDDR5DRAM shortagePC gaming hardwareRAM pricesTrendForce
