Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has been dominating the box office the past couple of weeks, raking in $652 million worldwide already. In only a matter of days, theater owners will be celebrating the arrival of another highly anticipated tentpole that’s set to break the bank: Marvel’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Over the past couple of years, there have been growing signs that superhero fatigue could be settling in, but Spider-Man looks to be immune. Even the earliest box office estimates suggested Brand New Day was going to post the biggest opening of the year so far, and the latest updates on that front are more of the same.
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According to Deadline, Brand New Day is currently projected to gross around $465 million globally in its opening weekend. That would be the second-biggest worldwide debut for Sony, behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home ($600.5 million), making it the second-biggest opening for a Spider-Man film ever. It would be the third-best start of any movie released in the post-pandemic era, trailing only No Way Home and Zootopia 2 ($560.3 million).
Could Spider-Man: Brand New Day Exceed Box Office Estimates?
The projections for Spider-Man: Brand New Day have always been impressive, but the actual numbers have vastly fluctuated. There have been some reports suggesting Brand New Day could make $300 million just domestically this weekend and $800 million worldwide. Some are more optimistic than others on Brand New Day‘s box office prospects because ticket pre-sales have been astronomical. Per Deadline, Brand New Day has already grossed $80 million domestically from those advanced sales, which makes predicting the weekend trickier than normal. Box office projections are not an exact science, so trying to account for factors like fan enthusiasm and ticket pre-sales can throw things out of whack sometimes.
On the surface, the idea of Brand New Day potentially outgrossing No Way Home‘s debut seemed outlandish. With its multiverse story that brought in characters from previous Spider-Man film series, No Way Home was an event movie on the level of Avengers: Infinity War or Endgame, giving fans a one-of-a-kind experience that celebrated two decades of the character’s rich on-screen history. In contrast, Brand New Day is a “smaller” story that’s more rooted in Peter Parker’s mental health as he lives a rather lonely existence being Spider-Man. Additionally, No Way Home was one of the first true post-COVID blockbusters, and there was genuine excitement to return to the theater and see a new movie together.
The circumstances surrounding the release of No Way Home are impossible to replicate, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Brand New Day had a lower opening. That said, there are some factors working in Brand New Day‘s favor that could lead to a larger debut. This is the first new MCU Spider-Man movie in five years, so audiences have had a real chance to miss Tom Holland’s version of the character and are excited to see him again (especially after the emotional ending of No Way Home). The fact that Spidey has been absent from the big screen for so long makes this solo MCU film feel like more of an event. There’s also interest in seeing Spider-Man interact with Marvel fan favorites like the Punisher and Hulk. Additionally, it seems like general audiences have been saving their money for Brand New Day. Many of this year’s traditional summer tentpoles underwhelmed at the box office, but The Odyssey and Brand New Day are huge, highlighting that people are more selective about what they see in the theater.
Brand New Day is also benefiting from strong word of mouth. Social media reactions and early reviews have been very positive, with many calling it the MCU’s best Spider-Man movie yet. Brand New Day was always going to be critic-proof in its opening weekend, but the fact that it’s well-received doesn’t hurt. If audience reception matches or surpasses the critics, then perhaps we could be looking at a debut that challenges No Way Home, which would be a remarkable feat. Regardless of what happens, Marvel will have plenty to celebrate at the box office this year.
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