The King of the Monsters returns in “Godzilla Minus Zero.”
Godzilla Minus Zero has the biggest domestic opening weekend box office of all time for a foreign-language live-action movie, as it powers its way north of $30 million at the North American box office. You can read my review of the filmhere.
Godzilla Minus Zero – The Numbers
After a superb Friday topping $14.5 million, writer-director-visual effects supervisor Takashi Yamazaki’s acclaimed sequel Godzilla Minus Zerois heading for a finish of at least $33 million domestic ticket sales for its freshman weekend, roughly tripling the opening bow of 2023’s Godzilla Minus One.
Internationally, Godzilla Minus Zero set opening records in Japan as well, and is on track to deliver foreign totals matching the domestic haul. That should push Minus Zero north of $65 million and probably toward $70 million, the higher-end outcome I mentioned expecting in my review of the film.
With a great A grade from audiencesten Tomatoes alongside an eye-popping 96% “Popcorn Meter” approval rating from verified ticket-holders, Godzilla Minus Zero should have long and strong box office legs, so a roughly $65 million opening would point toward a potential final gross of at least $200 million worldwide and more likely exceeding $250 million
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If it plays like Minus One three years ago, we’d be looking at a potentially mind-blowing 5x domestic multiplier, which would push the final stateside sales alone to more than $150 million, more than Minus One made worldwide in its entire run.
Something in-between that, and the more moderate numbers stated earlier, would see Godzilla Minus Zerofinishing with an estimated $275 million global haul. Even a worst-case scenario in which the film only doubles it’s opening weekend and suffers huge declines week to week would still get it to about $125 million, a new record for Japanese cinema in North America and topping Minus One’s total gross.
Godzilla Minus Zero – Big Screens Deliver Big Results
IMAX, Dolby Cinemas, and other premium formats were major players in helping Godzilla Minus Zero to such an impressive performance. About three-quarters of weekend domestic receipts are from those premium theaters, an all-time record besting former record-holder and this summer’s $1.8 billion blockbuster (and likely front-runner in most Oscar categories) The Odyssey by as much as 50%.
Part of the audience enthusiasm for Godzilla Minus Zero has been those IMAX experiences, as the film was shot in IMAX and looks spectacular in the format. The sense of scale and vulnerability created by the film choice is a crucial part of the immersion viewers get and it really sells the titanic status of not only the monsters but the war and weapons, as well as the fragility of the humans and their world.
Godzilla Minus Zero is a perfect example of what audiences want from their theatrical experience, which increasingly most people want in a premium format setting. It delivers the sort of visceral spectacle and excitement, realism and relatability, deep emotional impact, and beloved familiar characters in a familiar franchise doing something new and surprising.
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Do you get your money’s worth? You better believe it, and that’s the message audiences are spreading after seeing it. And with a film that checks all of those boxes, IMAX and Dolby Cinemas and the rest of the premium locations not only see these huge turnouts, there is the added trend of audiences waiting weeks at a time to see these films in order to secure the best possible seats.
That translates into the sort of legs that can carry a film like Godzilla Minus Zero into its sixth week (with a Thanksgiving holiday boost in the middle) with strong enough holds that the school vacations and Christmas holiday offer a chance to rise again for some final bites out of theatrical, although competition will be admittedly strong with Avengers: Doomsday and Dune Part Three among the blockbuster releases ahead.
Since only about $10 million was spent to promote the film so far, Godzilla Minus Zero could potentially get a much bigger marketing boost after proving it can put up blockbuster results off reputation and anticipation alone. With these box office returns, TOHO could now put twice as much into a bigger ad buy and viral marketing campaign to generate a surge of awareness and attendance riding the wave of good will, good reviews, and good sales this weekend. That would go a long way toward keeping the film buoyed and in the public eye as we approach Thanksgiving weekend, the lead-in to which is another perfect time for a third round of ad blitzes.
With inevitable awards season buzz and likely wins similar to its predecessor’s Academy Award success, Minus Zero should be well positioned to continue catching new waves into Christmas season and beyond. Yamazaki-san told The Hollywood Reporter that he thinks it’s 50/50 whether he will return to make a third film or not, saying he’s happy with how this film ties things up and wishes to pursue other opportunities, but also wants to return to the franchise. Of course, the film does tie things up for its own internal story but there is plenty of room left for a sequel, and indeed a few threads are left loose and destined for completion.
Which is to say, anticipation for a third film in the series will also help Godzilla Minus Zero going forward, as it will inevitably enjoy popularity on PVOD and streaming, winning more fans and building up for another box office record run for whatever hopefully comes next. Whether Yamazaki-san returns for another chapter or not remains to be seen, but if he does then audiences will surely line up again in record numbers.
Godzilla Minus Zero‘s total production and marketing costs were so relatively modest that this first weekend’s global sales should cover it. Consider that the studio will only get about half or slightly less of the box office, and even then TOHO should recover their expenses and from here forward be enjoying black ink in the ledgers for this one.
This article was originally published onForbes.com
