Marvel Studios has spent years navigating mixed critical reception and inconsistent box office grosses that have tested the studio’s reputation as Hollywood’s most reliable brand. Avengers: Doomsday aims to reverse that trend, giving Robert Downey Jr. the role of Doctor Doom and getting Chris Evans’s Steve Rogers out of retirement to fight alongside a massive assembly that includes Thor (Chris Hemsworth), Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie), Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), and even the Fantastic Four. The film also brings many of the original X-Men actors into the MCU, including Professor Charles Xavier (Patrick Stewart) and Magneto (Ian McKellen), promising an epic multiversal event the franchise has never attempted. With the film still three months away from its December 18 release, the anticipation is already translating into box office records.
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Avengers: Doomsday has crossed $40 million in domestic pre-sales 100 days before its theatrical release, making it the first movie in history to reach that figure in that time frame. Tickets for premium format screenings went on sale July 20th, and the film earned $16.5 million on that first day alone, doubling what Deadpool & Wolverine made during its own opening day of pre-sales in 2024. After that, wide ticket sales opened around Disney’s D23 event, with Doomsday now having crossed the $40 million mark. To be fair, while the number is impressive, pre-sales of this scale are a recent phenomenon. None of the four previous Avengers movies had pre-sales extending for so long, so we can’t really compare them. In fact, when Avengers: Endgame set the previous industry pre-sale record in 2019, tickets had only been available for a few weeks, not months. Still, Doomsday’s early pre-sales are running ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s equivalent window, which is great for Marvel Studios as Tom Holland’s latest solo adventure puts even more pressure on the Avengers.
Can Avengers: Doomsday Beat Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the Box Office?
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Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened domestically with $360 million, breaking Avengers: Endgame’s $357 million debut for the biggest domestic opening weekend ever, and it went on to become the second-fastest film in history to reach $2 billion worldwide, doing so in 17 days compared to Endgame’s 11. As of early September, Brand New Day has climbed past $2.4 billion globally and more than $900 million domestically, positioning it as the third-highest-grossing movie of all time behind only Avatar and Endgame. While it’s unlikely it will claim Endgame‘s second place, Brand New Day is a box office monster, however you look at it. Part of the Brand New Day excitement will turn more people towards Avengers: Doomsday, but Holland’s juggernaut will now become a direct point of comparison for the MCU’s upcoming event. Crossing the $2 billion mark now seems essential for audiences to accept Doomsdayas a success.
While we are still understanding the phenomenal box office run, everyone can list some of the key elements that helped Spider-Man: Brand New Day climb the box office rankings. The film folds in the Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) and the Punisher (Jon Bernthal) into the story while introducing Jean Grey (Sadie Sink) to the MCU as a dangerous telepath who will also be part of the upcoming X-Men movie. Despite that crowded roster, Brand New Day keeps its focus on Peter’s own emotional arc, and audiences have responded to a story that feels personal first and foremost. Doomsdayhas an even more crowded roster that helps bring people to theaters in the first week, but we still know next to nothing about the plot. With so many faces to serve, and a development process where the Russo Brothers began to shoot key sequences before having a script, the question now is whether the Avengers movie can reach the same relatability.
Estimates put Doomsday’s opening weekend between $260 million and $300 million domestically, a range that would land short of the $360 million Brand New Day posted on its own debut weekend. There are still three months to invest more in marketing and convince fans who are still on the fence. Still, reaching Brand New Day’s level of success requires Doomsday to outperform every projection. The issue also extends beyond the opening week, as Doomsday needs to tell a story strong enough to convince people to watch it multiple times and bring friends and family in upcoming weeks. The opening weekend is just the first step in the path towards the $2 billion earnings.
Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled to be released in theaters on December 18th.
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