Superhero fatigue is no match for Peter Parker.
Sure, comic book movies have been on the fritz. But everyone’s friendly neighborhood web-slinger is about to change the narrative, with Sony and Marvel’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” swinging to a truly heroic box office debut. Estimates are ranging from $260 million to $280 million from 4,300 North American theaters, which means it’s tracking to land one of the biggest opening weekends in history. Projections have been climbing and climbing in the days leading up to the release, with some bullish box office watchers suggesting a start over $300 million isn’t out of the question. Sony is suggesting a more conservative launch around $190 million to $195 million, though basically everyone else believes the film’s opening will be at least $250 million.
These are rarified box office heights. Only nine films have ever crossed $200 million in a single weekend while just one, Marvel’s 2019 behemoth “Avengers: Endgame,” surpassed $300 million in its debut. “Avengers: Endgame” holds the record for the biggest opening of all time with $357 million domestically and a mind-blowing $1.2 billion globally. The second-largest domestic opening weekend belongs to 2021’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home” with $260 million, followed by 2018’s “Avengers: Infinity War” with $257 million and 2015’s “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” with $247 million.
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” is projected to earn at least $275 million to $300 million at the international box office, although the final number will likely eclipse the studio’s estimates. Spidey’s prior adventure “No Way Home” opened to $327 million internationally and $587 million globally, registering as the third-best worldwide start in history. Meanwhile “Infinity War” ranks as the No. 2 global debut with $640 million. “Brand New Day,” which cost a sizable $225 million to produce, could crush those metrics. That’s because it’s landing day-and-date in China, where “No Way Home” didn’t play at all but 2019’s “Spider-Man: Far From Home” launched to $95 million.
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” is benefiting as the follow-up to “No Way Home,” which generated a staggering $1.9 billion — and that’s without China, a major market for Marvel movies. That sequel ended on a huge cliffhanger; Tom Holland’s Peter Parker made the difficult decision to erase his identity from the world in order to save the multiverse, leaving his girlfriend (Zendaya) and best friend Ned (Jacob Batalon) to forget about him. So it’s safe to say a lot of people have been waiting a while to find out the ramifications of Spidey’s fateful choice. Demand for tickets has been so intense that some major theater chains are scheduling showtimes every 15 minutes from dusk to dawn on opening weekend.
“Spider-Man” will screen on premium large formats except Imax, where Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” has the entire network for three weekends. With “The Odyssey” expected to remain a force in its third frame, this could power one of the biggest collective weekends in domestic box office history. “The Odyssey” is expected to earn another $50 million to $60 million over the weekend, though Nolan’s latest has been defying expectations, too. Currently the three biggest weekends at the domestic box office were tied to the releases of “Avengers: Endgame” ($402 million collectively), “Avengers: Infinity War” ($314 million collectively) and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” ($313 million collectively). It’ll be a particularly exciting weekend for the recently married Holland and Zendaya, who star in “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” and “The Odyssey.”
All the hype around the newest “Spider-Man” underscores the reality that Peter Parker is totally and completely impervious to Marvel fatigue. At a time when Disney’s once-impenetrable Marvel Cinematic Universe has been exhibiting concerning signs of wear and tear at the box office, Spider-Man is getting more and more powerful. It’s the rare series to keep growing and improving upon the last. Holland’s first foray, 2017’s “Homecoming,” ignited to $117 million domestically and ended its run with $880 million worldwide. Then “Far From Home” launched to $92 million domestically but powered to $1.13 billion worldwide. And of course, “No Way Home” was far and away the biggest with nearly $2 billion worldwide. (Although Disney backs most Marvel movies, Sony has the rights to Spider-Man. Kevin Feige produces all of the entries in the sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, the biggest film franchise of all time.)
“Superhero fatigue is real, but Spider-Man fatigue is not,” says analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations. “This is the first big superhero film of the summer, and there is so much goodwill following Spider-Man.”
Spider-Man joins Batman and Superman as some of the most prolific superheroes of all time. The character — portrayed in prior adventures by Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield — has appeared in nine standalone, live-action films in the past 24 years. (Holland’s web-slinging vigilante has made several appearances in MCU crossover events, such as “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Endgame.”) These days, Peter Parker might be more popular than the ubiquitous Clark Kent — although that’s not an entirely fair comparison because the Warner Bros.-owned DC Studios is in the process of rebooting its own superhero universe. Last year’s “Superman,” which introduced David Corenswet as the Man of Steel, was modestly successful with $616 million. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” will outgross the entire run of “Superman” in just one weekend.
In terms of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, its movies that revolve around established heroes — such as 2024’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” and 2022’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” — have remained huge box office draws. Installments that centered around lesser-known characters, like 2025’s “Captain America: Brave New World,” “Thunderbolts” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” or sequels that didn’t establish a compelling reason to exist, such as 2023’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” were unsuccessful at breaking out beyond the franchise’s core fanbase.
“Audiences are tired of seeing the same thing. There are too many connected storylines, and it’s turning entertainment into homework,” says Bock. He believes there’s something called “consequence fatigue” in a cinematic universe where the laws of nature don’t apply. “If every death can be reverse and every universe can be replaced, why should audiences be invested? People gravitate toward Spider-Man because Sony has always done a good job of balancing the superhero and everyday person who inhabits the costume.”
It also helps that “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” aside from the character’s massive popularity, has a compelling hook and positive reviews. Destin Daniel Cretton, who helmed the well-received 2021 Marvel adventure “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” took over directing duties from Jon Watts, who helmed the first three “Spider-Man” films with Holland. “Spider-Man 4″ arrives a few months before Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday,” which will bring back the kitchen sink of comic-book characters on Dec. 18 and could rival “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” as the year’s biggest release.
Beyond this calendar year, Marvel has heavy hitters like “Avengers: Secret Wars” in 2027 and “Black Panther 3” in 2028, as well as question marks like the newly announced “Ghost Rider” reboot with Ryan Gosling and an untitled “X-Men” movie in development. After a bumpy run following the epic culmination of “Endgame,” Marvel Studios expressed a desire to focus on quality over quantity. (The comic book empire had been cranking out as many as four films a year.) It’s unclear what that’ll look like over the long run. But with an opening weekend like the one that “Brand New Day” is about to enjoy, Spidey will certainly keep swinging back for new adventures — at least until the 30-year-old Holland’s knees give out.
“The Spider-Man story and its hero are dependable and archetypal — an awkward, powerless person accidentally finds his superpower and uses it to help others,” says David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “It’s a winning formula, every time.”
