Game console shipments are expected to fall 19.5% this year to 33.9 million units, according to new analyst data
A report from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan attributes this decline to higher console prices, implemented to address the ongoing RAM and storage crisis, which is making consoles less affordable for consumers
This decline reverses the gains following last year’s Nintendo Switch 2 launch, which had increased global console shipments by 13.5% to 42.1 million units
S&P’s console forecast, compiled in July 2026, includes only home gaming consoles from Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo
The data firm projects console shipments will fall to about 27.1 million units by 2027, with a gradual recovery to 37.4 million units by 2030
“A critical assumption underlying our forecast’s recovery period later in the decade is that the component crisis eases sufficiently by 2028 to allow Sony and Microsoft to bring next-generation hardware to market at price points in the $600 to $800 range,” said S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Neil Barbour
“For now, the market faces a compounding problem: hardware that is either too old or too expensive for the median consumer, a software slate that is thin outside a handful of tentpole releases, and a macro environment that keeps any meaningful price relief off the table.”
Nintendo Switch 2
S&P forecasts Switch 2 sales of 17.1 million units in 2026, comparable to the original Switch’s second-year performance and similar to the Wii
Nintendo’s latest full-year results project Switch 2 sales will decline 16.9% to 16.5 million units in its second fiscal year after launch
Alongside a $50 price increase impacting sales, S&P notes that “compounding matters is the lack of a clear software tentpole in the near term,” since the major title Pokémon Wind and Waves will not launch until late 2027
PlayStation 5
In its sixth year, PlayStation 5 shipped 17.1 million units across all models in 2025, a 15.2% decrease year-on-year. S&P expects shipments to decline further to 13.2 million in 2026
Due to the ongoing RAM crisis, Sony increased prices for all PS5 models in April 2026. The base PS5 rose from $550 to $650, the digital edition from $500 to $600, and the Pro from $750 to $900
Barbour noted these figures are challenging for consumers considering a six-year-old device, and the gap between PS5 and PS4 sales is already negative and widening
He also questioned whether the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 will be compelling enough to offset the higher price, even with strong demand for compatible hardware
“That framing does not inspire confidence for 2027 or beyond. Our forecast models a potential PlayStation 6 launch in 2028, contributing 4 million units in its first year and scaling to 17.2 million by 2030.”
Xbox Series X|S
Microsoft shipped 3.2 million Xbox Series X|S consoles last year, marking the lowest annual total on record. Quarterly shipments fell below 500,000 for the first time in S&P’s dataset during Q1 2026
S&P forecasts 2.5 million Xbox Series units sold in 2026, with “a rapid wind-down toward zero thereafter.”
Barbour attributes this significant decline to “an uneven first-party software library, a subscription-first strategy that did not noticeably improve hardware sales and pricing that now puts an Xbox Series X $100 above a standard PS5.”
Xbox’s next-generation console, codenamed Project Helix, will support both Xbox and PC games as well as backwards compatibility, likely resulting in a higher price point
Barbour highlighted the risk that this approach could limit the console’s appeal to “a narrower, more enthusiast-oriented audience.”
S&P predicts that the next Xbox console will sell roughly two million units in its launch year, scaling to 7.3 million by 2030
“The actual outcome could look very different,” Barbour added. “A fully open PC platform with Xbox branding would not really resemble a console and likely not be counted in this model
“Our forecast is functionally splitting the difference between a proper Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers should treat the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a range of outcomes contingent on decisions yet to be made or revealed.”
