One chest. A 1 in 137,500 chance. That is what stands between you and the Pirate Shop Access token, the Fortnite item some players claim is worth $10,000.
Epic Games has finally told players how likely they are to find the Pirate Shop Access token in Fortnite. The answer is not kind. Every chest you open in a normal match has a 1 in 137,500 chance of dropping it.
That works out to 0.000007273%.
Why people are chasing it
The token is the star prize of the Treasure Hunters season. Once activated, it makes every Item Shop item bought with V-Bucks free for two weeks. It can be used twice, once in 2026 and once in 2027.
Players have put a huge price on that. Some say an account holding the token could sell for as much as $10,000. We could not verify any sale at that price. Coverage of the token has put its value at thousands of dollars.
Selling accounts breaks Epic’s terms of service. That has not stopped it. Players are reportedly selling accounts and offering token-hunting services at hourly rates.
The full Fortnite chest odds
Epic’s numbers cover every treasure in the season. Here is the chance per chest in a normal match:
- 1 in 1,562,500: Weekly Gold Outfit
- 1 in 137,500: Pirate Shop Access
- 1 in 7,813: Weekly Vehicle and Decal
- 1 in 568: Weekly Pickaxe or Back Bling
- 1 in 391: Weekly Jam Track
- 1 in 272: Weekly Loading Screen
- 1 in 127: Gizmo (any)
The weekly gold outfit is the rarest drop by a wide margin. It is more than 11 times harder to find than the token.
How bad are the odds, really?
Epic’s figure is per chest, and each chest is an independent roll. Opening more chests does not make the next one luckier.
Our own math shows how harsh that is. Open 100,000 chests and you still have about a 52% chance of never seeing the token. Open 137,500 chests, the exact number in the odds, and there is still a 37% chance of coming away empty.
Treasure Hours help, a little
Epic has not changed the odds this season except during Treasure Hours. The boost was 1.5x in the first Treasure Hour on Saturday and 2x in the second.
The next Treasure Hours are on Nov. 14, the last set before Grand Theft Auto 6 launches. More are due on Nov. 21 and 28. The season ends on Dec. 5.
Why Epic published the odds
Fans had been asking for weeks. Since Treasure Hunters began on Nov. 1, players opened thousands of chests with nothing to show for it. On Saturday, before Treasure Hours started, they flooded social media with the hashtag ReleaseTheOdds. Epic then posted the figures.
What about the gold skins?
The Solid Gold A$AP Rocky outfit has rotated out of the weekly treasures. Solid Gold Lil Uzi Vert has replaced it. Both are free to find during Treasure Hunters. It is not known whether either will ever be sold in the Item Shop. If not, they could become some of the rarest cosmetics Fortnite has ever had.
