As of Tuesday morning, reliable forecasters said a tropical storm named Helen south of Cuba would intensify in the coming days and would almost certainly hit Florida as a hurricane on Thursday.
Now, we all love staring at the cones and “spaghetti models” that show potential paths as a storm approaches, but just start with the jump: Be aware of how to consume this well-known misconception information.
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Why it’s impossible to predict weather too far into the future
NOAA Cone Map of Storm Helen
According to NOAA, as of 11 a.m. ET, most of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, a large area of Florida spanning “Englewood to Indian Pass” and densely populated areas have A hurricane watch has been entered. Represented graphically as follows:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) cone map of Tropical Storm Helen shows the threat to parts of Mexico, Cuba and Florida.
Image source: NOAA
As a reminder, NOAA’s cones are fairly reliable predictions of path range. center of storm May be required. At first glance, the cones don’t seem to be predictions of an expanding storm hitting the interior of the United States. Strong winds and storm surges can and likely will occur outside the cone, while some areas within the cone will remain unscathed by the storm.
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If you’re reading this article and it turns out you’re directly in the path of a hurricane, you’ll have a hard time missing an evacuation order. At this stage, don’t speculate on whether your particular community will face strong winds and storm surge from a direct hit from a hurricane. In most areas, it’s wise to heed NOAA’s broader warning:
Heavy rainfall could cause locally severe flash flooding in parts of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible in the Southeast, southern Appalachia and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday.
Helen’s Pasta Model
Pasta models, like the NOAA cone model, visualize mathematical possibilities.
Unlike cones, they present a set of actual paths predicted by computer models, all of which spill out like spaghetti from Strega Nona’s magical pasta pot. Like cones, pasta models can be deceiving. All paths in the spaghetti model are speculative and contradict each other. Actual storms will only follow one path, and it’s almost certain that none of the predicted paths in this spaghetti will be a perfect forecast.
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The model posted online by Baton Rouge meteorologist Malcolm Byron appears to show about 20 potential paths, with a particularly ominous spaghetti line in the Far East hitting Tampa Bay directly. The public should be cautious about such anomalies.
Predicted unusual events often do not materialize. But events also don’t match the predicted average. While top-notch weather models can be very accurate, weather just happens, and its precise patterns are and always will be completely unknown due to the myriad of tiny natural and human factors that influence the outcome.
