The erosion of the traditional television landscape began years ago.
First, premium cable channels like HBO are beginning to encroach on what was once the exclusive domain of the “big three” networks.
Then, as the floodgates opened, a slew of basic cable shows—from MTV to ESPN—further flooded the market.
The rise of home video was another attack on the bastion of broadcasting.
Not long after digital antennas dealt a fatal blow to rabbit ears, a new and terrifying threat emerged from the strange new frontiers of the web.
Of course, we’re talking about streaming.
growing threat
Over the decades, the unraveling of network television has happened as gradually as climate change.
But over the past 15 years, it has gained the speed and momentum of a biblical flash flood.
It started, of course, with Netflix, a small startup that mailed DVDs to customers who indicated their preferences through the company’s website.
(If you want to feel truly ancient, try convincing your younger relatives that you once received Netflix via email.)
Over time, the websites from which subscribers ordered DVDs began to offer digital content.
At first, it was almost an afterthought—something to watch while you waited for the next disc to arrive in the mail.
In its early days, the streaming site only featured 1,000 movies, a miniscule number compared to the 70,000 DVDs customers could order by mail.
Little did we know that this new business model would quickly change the world.
New challenger emerges
Netflix branched out into original programming in 2011 with the political thriller House of Cards.
Lilyhammer and Orange Is the New Black followed shortly thereafter, becoming the first shots in what would become known as the streaming wars.
In 2012, Hulu entered the fray with its first scripted series, Battlefield .
The number of streaming services available to Americans will surge from two to more than 90 before the decade is out.
This rapid expansion continues, with Forbes reporting in January that the number had reached 200.
Many of these services spend money on top talent and a slew of original programming — a business model that would have been unthinkable for online media brands just a few years ago.
Now, we are on the brink of another development that once seemed impossible:
The television giants of yesteryear are facing extinction as their hunting grounds are overrun by hundreds of smaller challengers.
the beginning of the end
In 2022, Disney CEO Bob Iger recently warned that “Linear television and satellite are heading toward a huge cliff that will be pushed off… I can’t tell you when, but it will disappear.
Now, the collapse he predicted appears to be unfolding before our eyes.
Earlier this month, Warner Bros. was hit with a $9 billion impairment charge over the performance of its linear cable network, the latest in a series of humiliations for CEO David Zaslav.
“Cable networks are in the midst of this horrific, long-term, never-ending decline,” BofA Securities expert Jessica Reiff Erlich recently told The Hollywood Reporter.
“I think it’s worse than almost anyone expected, and even just two years ago, when the writing was on the wall, we thought it was going to be slower than it actually was.”
Cable executives predict a mini-catastrophe as cord-cutting becomes more widespread.
But clearly those at the top believe they can weather the storm, in part by adopting an “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” strategy.
how many No It is foreseeable that advertising-supported streaming services will rise.
Now, network and cable TV giants are forced to deal with a “double whammy” situation:
they are losing their audience and Advertisers to streaming services.
With two holes in the boat, it seems unlikely that the good ship’s linear TV will remain afloat for much longer.
The THR article warns that cable channels may soon go the way of newspapers:
They will be targeted by opportunistic investment funds until they fail completely.
Broadcast networks may be able to weather this storm just because they’re free and can more easily find a foothold in the streaming world with services like Hulu Live.
Oh, and millions of Americans watch them out of habit, which can’t be said for the millions of niche basic cable channels that have popped up over the past 20 years.
But even classic ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox may not survive in their current form.
They will start to look more and more like streaming services, favoring shorter seasons, longer breaks and a more cancellation-friendly approach to programming.
Simply put, it’s not a good time to be an aspiring showrunner — or just a fan of quality television.
It wasn’t that long ago that prestige television seemed to have saved the world and elevated television from a media platform to a bona fide art form.
But that era was short-lived, and today’s competitive environment is not fertile ground for creative experimentation.
Ironically, the proliferation of streaming services may soon leave us with fewer choices than we had in the days when there were three networks and big old knobs on the front of our TVs.
TV fans, what do you think? Are you optimistic about the future of television?
Hit the comments section below to share your thoughts.
