In early 2025, ADA reached a peak of $1.10 as the market entered a correction phase, but quickly fell below $0.70. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that ADA has lost more than 22% since the beginning of Q2.
However, current price action shows that the ADA is consolidating around a strong support zone that could improve if broader market conditions improve.
According to daily chart data on TradingView, ADA is currently trading above the triangle pattern, a bullish technical structure that usually issues a breakthrough sign before an uptrend. The short-term top formation is about $0.74, while the higher lows indicate an increase in buying pressure at increasingly high prices.
The relative intensity index (RSI) hovers around 57 (a neutral zone), which suggests that the ADA has not been over-traded and that if capital inflows continue, the ADA still has room to climb. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average is close to crossovers with more than the 200-day moving average. If confirmed, this will form a “golden cross”, which is a widely recognized signal of a medium-term upward trend.
If the ADA successfully exceeds the resistance level of $0.74, the next target target may range between $0.80 and $0.84, which coincides with the latest corrected Fibonacci retracement. However, not holding support at $0.63 could open the door for a deeper pullback, with the next key support area around 0.52-$0.55, previously a strong accumulation area for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Source: TradingView
Basic Analysis: Strong development, but capital inflows remain soft
Chang Hard Fork, Intersek testnet and Hydra launch
In the short term, ADA’s biggest catalyst is the upcoming Chang Hard Fork, which is expected to go live in May 2025. This marks Cardano’s entry into the Voltaire era, the final stage of its development roadmap, a key transition.
Source: Cardano Roadmap
The upgrade will introduce a comprehensive chain policy that enables ADA holders to vote on fiscal component allocation and network-level decisions. This represents an important step in decentralization, long-term stability and transparent governance of the Cardano ecosystem.
As governance strengthens, Cardano is strengthening its technology infrastructure to improve scalability and cross-chain compatibility. A notable highlight is the release of Intersek testnet, an EVM-compatible bridge that enables Ethereum-based DAPP to be deployed directly on Cardano. This move is seen as a strategic effort to attract developers from other ecosystems, especially given Ethereum’s continued high gas costs.
Cardano’s Layer 2 solution Hydra head also continues to move forward, with the potential to process thousands of transactions per second without having to crowd the main chain. Several development teams have successfully tested simple gaming and payment applications using Hydra.
In terms of research, IOHK proposed an early roadmap for Ouroboros Leios, a next-generation consensus mechanism designed to enhance throughput and reduce transaction latency. These advances enhance Cardano’s core infrastructure and expand its potential use cases in DEFI, AI, and supply chain tracking.
Capital Flow: Mixed Signal
Despite strong technological advances, capital flows remain the decisive factor. On-chain data from Whalestats and santiment shows that in the last week of April 2025, several large wallets sold 150 million ADAs, exerting short-term downward pressure. This may reflect ADA’s profit after recovering from $0.50 earlier this year.
Source: santiment
However, medium and long-term holders (with holdings between 10,000 and 1 million ADAs) are starting to accumulate again, especially in the range of $0.65 to $0.68. Furthermore, the funding rate between derivatives platforms remains positive, and the signal continues to be bullish sentiment among margin traders.
Following the precedent of Ethereum, there are also rumors in the analyst circle about ADA’s potential ETF applications. If this product is confirmed and approved in the second half of 2025, it could significantly increase institutional capital inflows and become a game-changer for the ADA’s long-term price trajectory.
ADA price forecast
Short term (next 1 month): $0.65-$0.80 in range
May 2025, if ADA can maintain support $0.67 And decisively exceeding the $0.74 key resistance, and it can be reached by moving towards the $0.80 level. The $0.78–$0.80 area is also consistent with the recently corrected 0.5 Fibonacci pullback, which is the level where short-term profits may occur.
However, if the ADA cannot hold it $0.70 In the next 2-3 weeks, facing pressure from whale sell-offs or adverse macro news (e.g., rising U.S. inflation or continuing feeding hawks), prices may retest the area at $0.60 or lower. The $0.63 level is still strong technical support.
The price drop is 0.52 only if the broader cryptocurrency market enters a sharp correction phase or there is regulatory or negative news related to ETFs.
Medium (3-6 months): Target $1-$1.20
If Cardano successfully launches Chang Hard Fork and launches the Mainnet version of Intersek EVM Bridge, the ecosystem can see a significant increase in DAPP activity and user onboarding, a powerful catalyst that can help ADA get $1 in Q3 2025.
The bullish scenarios for the next 3-6 months may include:
- Ada breaks through the previous heights $1.10 and positioning $1.20especially if the market enters the mini season or approves the ADA live ETF.
- If Cardano’s ecosystem expands, but the macro conditions remain neutral, the ADA may merge $0.90 – $1.00 Before a clear breakthrough.
- Conversely, if the wider crypto market maintains scope restrictions, ADA may continue to be $0.65– $0.85 There is no decisive breakthrough in the scope.
in conclusion
In short, the 1-6 month trajectory of ADA is Conditional bullish. If both technology and basic factors are consistent, the price may exceed $1.
Otherwise, if broader market conditions weaken or capital continues to flow elsewhere, the ADA may remain between $0.60 and $0.85 for a period of time. However, for long-term investors, ADA remains a project worth seeing, supported by a strong infrastructure roadmap and highly engaged community.
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