New players enter the field, resulting in the predictions of the previous cycle no longer correct. The market has entered a new era of Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant CEO and well-known chain analyst Ki Young Ju reflects his previous prediction that “the Bitcoin bull cycle is over.”
Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #bitcoin Sales pressure is easing and a large inflow is passing through ETFs.
In the past, the Bitcoin market was very simple. The main players are old whales, miners and new retail investors, basically… pic.twitter.com/on4n6vnc0s
-Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025
Ki Young Ju released a chart called “Signal 365 MA” and admitted his mistakes and provided insights on how the markets change with new players, including institutional investors and exchange-traded traded trade funds (ETFS).
Market Change: New Participants, New Rules
Ki Young Ju explains in his post why he previously claimed that the “Bitcoin Bull Cycle ends” was wrong. The market is dominated by miners, individual investors and old whales who play a game called “Music Chairs” that makes the Bitcoin cycle past predictable.
Read more: “Bitcoin Growth Cycle Ended”
When retail liquidity is dry and whales are caught, a series of sell-offs usually marks a cyclical peak. “It is relatively easy to predict periodic peaks,” he said. But the model is no longer relevant.
Today’s Bitcoin market is going to be diversified. Institutional investors, MicroStrategy, ETFs and government agencies all enter the market. The launch of 11 Bitcoin live ETFs has greatly expanded institutional liquidity, with the daily ETF volume now approaching $10 billion.
“The new sources of liquidity and quantity are becoming increasingly uncertain, which suggests the merger of the Bitcoin market with Tradfi,” said Ki Young Ju, highlighting the change.
Since these new players can even offset huge sales pressure, he now believes the focus should be on institutional inflows rather than whale sell-offs.
The “Signal 365 MA” graph supports this transition graphically, which compares the price of Bitcoin to the 365-day moving average (MA) from 2013 to 2025.
Source: Encryption
In the past, the chart showed serious dives below 365 MA during bear markets (e.g., 2018, 2022), peaking peaks above the Bulls run (e.g., 2017, 2021).
However, Bitcoin’s price is closer to 2025’s 365 MA, and the correction seems to be longer but shallower.
Looking to the future: a new era of Bitcoin?
Ki Young Ju still hopes with caution about the future of Bitcoin. He said that while the market “stagnates while absorbing new liquidity,” “recent price action is extremely optimistic,” fueled by massive inflows of ETFs and reduced sales pressure. However, he did point out that these signs remain ambiguous, with no obvious bearish or bearish signals to take the profit cycle.
The growing impact of traditional finance introduces another complexity. Although the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has increased, this link is not always stable, and Bitcoin’s volatility remains problematic.
Investors must adapt to this ever-changing environment. Navigating the benefits and risks for 2025 will require understanding of the impact of institutional liquidity, as previous principles of managing Bitcoin cycles may no longer apply. Whether this is a brief change or the beginning of a new chapter in Bitcoin, it is more important than ever.
