In traditional finance, the term “Sell and disappear in May” reflects the strategy of exiting the market in May to avoid a calming summer. But is this approach valid in the world of cryptocurrencies? Especially for leading assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP), historical data and current market volatility indicate that the picture is more complex.
Historical Trends: “May Sell” in the Cryptocurrency Market
Since Bitcoin has become a mainstream financial asset, May has been worth a visit for a month. Reliable data from STATMUSE and BINANCE show that Bitcoin exceeded $2,000 for the first time in May 2017, rising from about $1,348 to $2,286. However, not everyone brings benefits. In 2018, BTC fell nearly 20%, from $9,200 to $7,494. The most eye-catching correction occurred in May 2021, when prices fell from $58,000 to just $37,332, while China’s crackdown on crypto mining was launched.
Source: TradingView
XRP’s earnings rose from $0.45 to $0.52, due to Ripplev. Optimistic drivers of SEC litigation and general Altcoin recovery.
However, in May 2024, XRP moved in the range of 0.52–$0.55, reflecting investors’ warnings in the final stages of the lawsuit. Liquidity has dropped slightly, and although there are signs of recovery in the substitute currency industry, the price has not yet broken through. This underscores the heavy reliance of XRP on news-driven catalysts rather than technical setups or short-term speculative inflows.
May 2024: On-chain data and derivative activities
According to GlassNode, in early May 2024, the number of Bitcoins transferred from cold wallets to exchanges increased significantly. This is a classic signal for potential profits, especially as BTC just hit a $67,000 mark at the end of April.
Meanwhile, the funding rate (measures the difference between derivative prices and spot prices) becomes negative on major platforms such as Binance and OKX. This shift suggests that speculative sentiment has tended toward short-term bearish expectations.
Despite this, institutional capital remains stable. Spotted Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s iShares and fidelity advantages, have not experienced a lot of outflows. This supports the idea that most sales pressure comes from retail investors and short-term traders, while long-term holders continue to view BTC as a store of value for ongoing inflation.
Seasonality is another important factor. Data cited by Matrixport shows that Bitcoin has performed poorly historically, with the average return bias negative over several years. This seasonal trend strengthens the defensive market posture, especially when global financial markets are under pressure from inflation and prolonged currency tightening.
Source: Xiaodian
Some analysts warn that unless there is a clear macroeconomic catalyst in the near term, the “sales” effect this year may be strong.
May 2025: Between risk and optimism
With the start of May 2025, Bitcoin is trading at about $94,598, worse than its all-time high in early April. This powerful rally is accompanied by strong liquidity and continues to flow into the spotted Bitcoin ETF. Similarly, XRP hit $2.17, marking an impressive recovery from below $1 level six months ago.
Source: Encryption
However, despite these optimistic about these technical signals, macroeconomic headwinds still exist. The U.S. Federal Reserve has a benchmark interest rate of more than 5%, and reiterated that there is no policy hub expected in 2025. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has climbed to its highest level since October 2023, which will weaken demand for non-yield assets such as Bitcoin and XRP.
From a positive perspective, data from chain analytics platforms such as cryptocurrencies show that BTC outflows on exchanges are rising. The number of BTC-holding wallets has reached an all-time high for more than 12 months, demonstrating long-term investors’ belief that the bull market trend remains intact despite currency tightening and global economic uncertainty.
Popular market sentiment
Based on current technical analysis and macroeconomic conditions, analysts outlined two clear options for the crypto market in Q2 2025.
In bullish situations, if the upcoming CPI data shows that Bitcoin can expand its upward momentum and reach a psychological $100,000 milestone, it suggests that our inflation cooling is below 3%. Such a reading will allow the Fed to relax its currency hopes later this year, encouraging further capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional demand remains strong with BTC’s funding. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is likely to set a new all-time high in 2025.
For XRP, the SEC opened a new chapter in the post-initiation phase after the appeal was filed in March 2025. The end of Ripple’s legal battle calms investors and clears U.S. legal risks. This paves the way for institutional investors to re-engage with XRP on a large scale.
CME Group confirmed that it will list XRP futures contracts in mid-May 2025, further strengthening the institutional positioning of the token. As capital transfers to Chinese stocks, XRP may increase if bullish signals persist. Prices may target $2.50 or higher, especially if derivative platforms continue to increase marketing and transaction volumes remain strong.
Bearish turn may follow a hotter CPI or unemployment rate jump. The Fed may remain high for longer, increasing pressure on risky assets. Due to cautious caution, BTC could drop to $85,000 – $88K support fell.
Even if XRP improves post-legal clothing after the prospect, short-term risks remain. Speculative capital may quickly turn to trend sectors such as meme coins or AI tokens, thereby undermining the liquidity of XRP. CME’s XRP futures may attract institutions, but if sentiment diminishes, it is also possible to cheer up shorts. If trading volumes diminish and technical momentum fades, XRP may correct it to $1.80 in the short term.
in conclusion
For a long time, May has been a noteworthy month for traditional financial markets. However, it is more decisive than seasonal models in the fields of digital assets, investor sentiment, regulatory development and institutional flows.
In 2025, despite the continued development of the macroeconomic headwind, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a strong wave of growth. Bitcoin is still close to its all-time high, while XRP is steadily reclaiming its position in favorable legal development. During some pullback phases, the “May Sales” strategy may still apply, but it is followed by key opportunities that could cause investors to miss out on the broader bull cycle.
From a long-term perspective, May 2025 could simply represent a temporary pause, a healthy correction before the crypto market resumes its upward trajectory for the rest of its time.
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