October is often viewed as a crucial month for the cryptocurrency market. After a challenging September, this is a time for markets to rebound.
Over the years, the crypto community has created “uptober” to describe these bullish trends, which skeptics sometimes call “Rector Bell“If market predictions fail.
Given the market volatility in 2024, investors are eagerly anticipating what October will bring. Will this month be full of gains, or will it be dominated by disappointment? This research report provides an in-depth look at investor sentiment, forecasts and key factors influencing market direction.
Main findings
- Three Quarters of Cryptocurrency Investors We are confident that October 2024 will bring significant market gains, strengthening the “uptober“Narrative.
- Ethereum, Solanaand Binance Bank It is expected to be a top altcoin that will rise alongside Bitcoin.
- More than half of cryptocurrency investors Uptober predicts Bitcoin price at $80,000
- Nearly half of investors A bullish fourth quarter is expected, underscoring strong optimism for market growth.
- this US presidential election Considered a major catalyst, 51% of investors expect it to impact market trends in the fourth quarter.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expected to dominate the cryptocurrency narrative, 52.5% of investors Emphasizing its importance in the fourth quarter.
September market sentiment: Rektember or resilience?
Although September is a notoriously difficult month for cryptocurrencies—often labeled “rectangle”——Investor sentiment basically remains optimistic.
Driven by a variety of factors, more than half of the respondents (55.2%) remain optimistic about the market outlook. in, 27.6% of investors Rally expected on Uptober, although 24.2% believe cryptocurrency adoption will continue to grow As more and more users and institutions participate in this field.
However, not everyone shares this optimism. a noteworthy 44.8% of participants Pessimistic about September, concerns mainly focus on global economic weaknessthis is the key issue that 52.7% of investors are concerned about.
Interestingly, when it comes to portfolio rebalancing during this challenging month, most investors choose to remain steady, 63% are prepared for Uptober’s potential earnings.
Meanwhile, a smaller but still noteworthy group 20.2% Bought more crypto assets Expectations for market growth reinforce the consensus that October will bring better results.
Predictions for October 2024: 75% of Global Cryptocurrency Investors Ready for Bullish Trends
As October approaches, investor sentiment is extremely positive, with approx. 75.3% predict Uptober is bullish.
Among them, nearly half (ie, 48.3%) expect the market to grow by 5% to 10%, while 20.4% expect the market to grow between 10% and 20%. Some investors, about 6.6%, are more optimistic, predicting gains of more than 20%.
Global Cryptocurrency Market in “Uptober”
Uptober’s predictions are primarily driven by Bitcoin’s historical performance October, with 38.7% of investors Pointing out past market trends is a key factor.
| Year | Year-to-date Bitcoin price in October |
| 2014 | 12.95% |
| 2015 | -33.49% |
| 2016 | 14.71% |
| 2017 | 47.81% |
| 2018 | -3.83% |
| 2019 | 10.17% |
| 2020 | 27.7% |
| 2021 | 39.93% |
| 2022 | 5.56% |
| 2023 | 28.52% |
Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance
also, Positive market sentiment,support 51.2% of respondentsfurther strengthened Uptober’s belief in rebound. Other influencing factors include Institutional Adoptioncited by 16.3% of investors, and key catalytic eventmentioned 15.6%.
Upcoming Crypto-Friendly Regulations 22.8% of investors also considered it influential, while 20.6% highlighted Strong technological breakthrough form as a reason for their optimism.
Among altcoins, Ethereum Considered the strongest performer, 47.5% of investors Optimistic about gains in October. Solana and Binance Bank It is also expected to rise and be favored 17.7% and 19.6% of investorsrespectively along with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s road to $80,000
A key question this month is whether Bitcoin will reach its much-anticipated levels $80,000 mark. only More than half of investors Respondents (51%) believe Bitcoin can achieve this milestone during Uptober. Meanwhile, 49% think it will take longer to achieve, with some expecting it to happen Late 2024 or early 2025.
Much of this optimism stems from the belief that Trump wins the upcoming US presidential election It could significantly push the price of Bitcoin higher. A potential Trump victory is seen as positive for cryptocurrencies due to the Trump administration’s lax stance on financial regulation and its impact on institutional investment.
During Uptober, 49% of people believed that Bitcoin would not reach $80,000. 19.3% expect to reach this milestone by the end of the year. larger group, 73.6% expect Bitcoin to reach $80,000 next yearwhile 7.1% had other schedules.
Market expectations for Q4 2024: Bullish sentiment dominates
Nearly half of investors expect the market to be bullish, including 45.9% predict an upward trend. Others (about 37.4%) expect the market to move sideways, while only 16.7% expect the market to be bearish, indicating a positive overall outlook for the rest of the year.
| time | Q1 | Q2 | Season 3 | Season 4 |
| 2023 | +71.77% | +7.19% | -11.54% | +56.90% |
| 2022 | -1.46% | -56.2% | -2.57% | -14.75% |
| 2021 | +103.17% | -40.36% | +25.01% | +5.45% |
| 2020 | -10.83% | +42.33% | +17.97% | +168.02% |
| 2019 | +8.74% | +159.36% | -22.86% | -13.54% |
| 2018 | -49.7% | -7.71% | +3.61% | -42.16% |
| 2017 | +11.89% | +123.86% | +80.41% | +215.07% |
| 2016 | -3.06% | +62.06% | -9.41% | +58.17% |
| 2015 | -24.14% | +7.57% | -10.05% | +81.24% |
| 2014 | -37.42% | +40.43% | -39.74% | -16.70% |
Bitcoin Historical Quarterly Returns in the Fourth Quarter
A key factor influencing fourth-quarter expectations is the upcoming US presidential electionand 50.4% of investors It is believed that it will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
also, Large-scale institutional investment It is expected to play an important role as 24.3% of participants consider it a key driver. at the same time, Upcoming Crypto-Friendly Regulations A positive contribution is expected, with 33.4% of respondents considering potential regulatory changes to be critical to future market growth.
Artificial Intelligence Leads Cryptocurrency Narrative in Q4
As the fourth quarter approaches, artificial intelligence has become a dominant theme in the cryptocurrency space. More than half of the investors surveyed (55.7%) believe that AI will drive the direction of the market in the coming months.
Other trends such as NFT and virtual universeStill important, but lagging behind artificial intelligence, with only 16.1% of investors highlighting these areas. Games and virtual world projectsFavored by 10.6%, it is still relevant but is considered secondary to artificial intelligence.
As blockchain and artificial intelligence continue to converge, investors are clearly watching these developments closely for future opportunities.
in conclusion
As October 2024 approaches, the crypto community is filled with optimism. Strong belief in the “Uptober” scenario, coupled with positive expectations for the fourth quarter, suggests that the cryptocurrency market may be in for an exciting period ahead.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election, potential regulatory changes, and technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence, are key factors to watch as we enter the final quarter of 2024.
As with the cryptocurrency world, the only thing certain is change. Whether October 2024 brings an “Uptober” surge or a “Rektober” surprise, it will be an eventful year for cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
methodology
The study surveyed 1,200 respondents from a diverse population. 56% of the respondents belong to the Millennial generation (26-41 years old), and 25.3% belong to Generation Z (10-25 years old). Gen
In terms of gender, the survey respondents were mainly female, with 64.7% being women and 34.7% being men, while 0.7% were unwilling to reveal their gender.
Geographically, nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) are located in the Americas, including North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. The second largest group comes from Europe, accounting for 19.8%, followed by the Middle East and Africa, accounting for 20.7%. Finally, 10.1% of respondents live in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes regions such as South Asia, Northeast Asia, and Oceania.
