Ten years ago, after releasing the iPhone 6, Tim Cook showed the world one more thing. The first hiss reel on Apple Watch.
It’s interesting to watch today, especially when you focus on the features Apple claims will revolutionize the smartwatch category. The Digital Crown is a so-called input technology breakthrough that lets you scroll and zoom on what is essentially a mini wrist computer. It has a Taptic Engine that discreetly buzzes when a text or notification comes in. Also, remember digital touch? That weird feature where you press two fingers on the screen and send an animation of your heartbeat to a friend?
Let’s not forget the $10,000 18K gold Apple Watch Edition.
Fast forward a decade and the Apple Watch craze is completely different. Now, they’re packed with people sharing stories of how the Apple Watch saved their lives. Year after year, most new features focus on novel ways to close rings. No matter what you think of the Apple Watch, it’s now the most popular smartwatch in the world, and has been for years. In 2020, it outsold the entire Swiss watch industry. It’s an undeniable success. But 10 years later, where will the Apple Watch go next?
The first-generation Apple Watch came out during the golden age of fitness trackers. Devices like Fitbit and Jawbone Up dominate with their long battery life and simplicity. Smartwatches kind of suck. Pebble was beloved by gadget enthusiasts for its simplicity, but the company never gained mainstream traction. Google followed in 2014 with Android Wear, but as a platform it was plagued by a laggy interface, questionable tracking accuracy, bulk, and poor battery life. Samsung has some options with its Tizen operating system, but it suffers from many of the same problems. The same goes for the first-generation Apple Watch. For most people, a smartwatch is too expensive a device to replace a fitness tracker or smartphone. So, what’s the point of buying it?
No one has a good answer, including Apple (which may be why early marketing for the Apple Watch focused on things like fashion). It wasn’t until 2017 that it began to find answers.
That’s when Apple added LTE to the Series 3. You can still call for help in an emergency. I remember when I was panicking on a walk, I called my roommate to give myself a false sense of safety. Security is a compelling argument, although performance still lags. It certainly didn’t help that making this call completely drained my battery life in just 30 minutes. After finishing testing the Series 3, I returned to the Fitbit Alta HR, but my opinion of the device has changed, considering it an unnecessary luxury.
Then the real industry-wide game-changer came in 2018 with the Series 4. It can tell when you’ve fallen and call for help on your behalf. On top of that, you might get an alert if your heart rate spikes abnormally when it shouldn’t. Your phone can’t do that. Suddenly, the Apple Watch is no longer a fancy toy that at best helps sort notifications. It can save lives. And it did.
Facts have proven that health is the reason why most people buy smart watches. Interestingly, this is the number one reason friends and family ask me about smartwatches. I would get texts from people worried about their parents’ health or, as I got older, from friends who were worried after a not-so-good doctor’s visit. This is why I personally made the switch. That’s why it’s so hard to find people making fitness bands these days.
The only problem is that technology moves very quickly. Health conditions are notoriously slow to progress.
There are more clever updates to the Apple Watch than I can count. So much so, that the Series 9, Ultra 2, and second-generation SE are very different devices from the original watches. (Personally, I’m a big fan of last year’s double-tap gesture.) But even the most ardent Apple Watch fan can’t deny that these updates have become more iterative over time. Aside from the launch of the Ultra in 2022, there hasn’t been an industry-shaking update since the Series 4.
It’s not for lack of trying. Apple is rumored to have been working on features like high blood pressure and sleep apnea detection, as well as the holy grail of all health tech – non-invasive blood sugar monitoring. But the raison d’être of smartwatches—that they can save lives—is also why they’re in trouble. If people believe this technology can save lives, it must pass higher regulatory standards than any other consumer electronics.
Even the most ardent Apple Watch fans can’t deny that these updates are coming every year.
This is a good thing! FDA clearance is to protect consumers and ensure guardrails are in place. But it does mean Apple is in trouble. For better or worse, it has raised consumer expectations for the segment to sky-high levels. However, advanced health features require companies to walk a fine line between regulatory clearance, accuracy, and patents. All of this requires significant resources and time. (You only have to look at Apple’s legal battle with medical device maker Masimo over blood oxygen technology to see why Samsung beat Apple to FDA approval for sleep apnea features.)
At its core, the Apple Watch is much like the iPhone was a few years ago—steady but minor updates with a vague sense that something big is about to happen. But generative artificial intelligence has breathed new life into smartphones, and no one has yet figured out how best to pack it into a smartwatch. Based on what we saw at WWDC, Apple Intelligence won’t be moving to Watch anytime soon, either. So where will the Apple Watch go in the next decade?
There’s always the possibility that Apple could launch an industry-first health feature out of thin air. Just a few days ago, Burundi and 9 to 5 Both reported that long-term delayed sleep apnea function may occur. But without health, Apple would have to go a more traditional route. Bigger screen. Better battery life. Upgraded sensors. The deeper fitness features compete with the likes of Garmin, Polar and Suunto. More ways to integrate with other Apple devices. New, non-healthy ways to make your life better. Apple is in a tricky situation, but as far as EKGs are concerned, it’s been worth the wait. The next time Tim Cook takes the stage, it might not be to show off the technology that saves your life, but to give it time.
